Pollsters will have to question themselves
Wednesday in the United States, we were still awaiting the results of certain states where the vote was very tight.
Share November 4, 2020 4:55 p.m. Updated at 10:13 p.m. Share Pollsters will have to question themselves
Claude Plante La Tribune Polling firms will have to think about their working methods following Tuesday's US election. The close results obtained do not reflect those of the probe shots carried out in the last weeks and days of the electoral campaign.
If many predicted a resounding victory for the Democratic clan, its leader Joe Biden could become president of the United States by snatch, noted Raynald Harvey, president of Segma Research.
On Wednesday, we were still awaiting the results of some states because the vote was so tight.
“There was a questioning in 2016 following the election of Donald Trump, but the polling houses will have to do it again”, he analyzes, during an interview with La Tribune .
“They were within the margin of error for the popular vote, but not for the number of major voters. There they are outside the margin of error for both results. “
Republican voters should have been better weighted in the poll calculations, adds Harvey. We also underestimated the mobilization of supporters of Donald Trump. “We notice that Donald Trump fans are more motivated and have been voting in greater numbers than we thought,” he underlines. We saw them go to Donald Trump's rallies despite the COVID. “
“There is also the fact that people say less that they will vote for Donald Trump when it comes time to take a poll. There is also more volatility. People change their mind when they get to the voting booth. “
Voting and social media
We also cannot predict who will vote. The polls are based on the assumption that 100 of respondents will go and put an X on a ballot, notes Harvey.
“Today, people will change their minds just by reading information on social networks. It's getting harder to predict, he says. We note that the polls carried out two or three weeks before the vote are less reliable. Those made two or three days before will be more reliable. “
“Obviously, people with less education and more motivated supporters voted in greater numbers. “
Donald Trump has also almost managed to stay in the White House despite the mass media very often taking a stand against the incumbent. “Despite what the media say, people make up their own minds,” says the pollster.
“Donald Trump will be able to continue to say that the media are corrupt. He will be able to add that the polls are corrupt … “
Recall that in the middle of the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, the media criticized President Donald Trump after he falsely declared live on television that he had been re-elected, even though the votes were still being counted.
As reporters and supporters gathered at the White House at around 2:20 a.m., the president said it was “a major fraud for our nation” that he was not declared the winner, the president reported. 'Associated Press.