The risk of recession still estimated at 50% for 2023

Quebec Minister of Finance, Eric Girard.

According to a Journal de Montréal report, Quebec Finance Minister Eric Girard believes that the risk of a recession hitting the province is still 50%.

“My estimate of 50% is still good,” he said during his speech at the launch of the Tax Report of the Chair in Taxation and Public Finance on Friday. Minister Girard indicated that the rate at which inflation decreases in 2023 is the most important element to watch.

“If inflation decreases rapidly, as early as mid-year, we could have rate cuts, and therefore reduce this effect, which is the main source of the economic slowdown.”

Mr. Girard pointed out in passing that a possible recession in Quebec and Canada would depend on the financial situation in the United States during the first four months of 2023, the financial health of our neighbors to the South being intrinsically linked to ours. .

Recall that the Minister of Finance was optimistic last November, announcing that the worst of inflation was over while commenting on the data showing annual inflation stable at 6 .9% in October 2022.